The Fortune article came out July 7th, 2021, so it is a fairly recent review of the lumber prices.
In the title it says that lumber was down 49% from it’s peak price. This is because the pandemic caused a shortage of many materials including lumber which sent the price sky rocketing up 300% from it’s pre-pandemic price.
Lumber is not suspected to jump in price anytime soon as prices continue to drop. At one point the cash price dropped to $160! On May 28th it hit an all time high of $1,515! Needless to say the rise and fall of lumber prices has been quite erratic.
It is not predicted that these prices will fluctuate as aggressively as they were, but it is foreseen that retailers will begin to markdown their lumber as the wholesale price drops. It could take weeks or even months to see a change so keep and eye out!
In the spring when prices were at a high new home development and home improvement were down. This allowed for the shortage to slowly build back up again and help lower the price now (supply & demand basics).
Industry insiders don’t foresee a fluctuation of prices to the pre-pandemic price. It is predicted though that prices will continue to decline as lumber producers try to get ride of excess inventory.
There are many variables that can affect the lumber prices including wild fires. Specifically in British Columbia and the PNW where the epicenter for North American lumber is located.
There were many factors that affected the lumber shortage including saw mills holding back on production due to the fear of a large housing crises like 2008. As we all know now, the opposite happened, during quarantine people to Home Depot and Lowes by storm to start doing the home improvement projects they always wanted to do, but were never home to take on. The recession induced interest rates help encourage a housing boom.
Just because lumber prices have dropped does not mean other commodities we enjoy will be dropping like oil, which is being used more and more lately as people are commuting and traveling more as the country begins to open. So keep an eye out on industry trends because it is an interesting time to be around.